Tracking shows delivered but buyer says otherwise and opened an A-to-Z

Hey guys, this is my first A-to-Z in ~600 orders. L

Canada Post has attached the delivery confirmation upon delivery of this order. I can provide the delivery confirmation. The tracking shows that the order was delivered to the buyer on December 7, 2022 at 2:07PM. The buyer had claimed that she had video surveillance showing that the package was not delivered at said time. I had requested the buyer to provide the footage for the Canada Post insurance claim, and she had stopped responding to me once I had requested such and ignored my prior questions about her video evidence claims. I had always provided refunds out of good faith to buyers when they had claimed the order was not received and provided a valid explanation. I’m unsure why the return/“not received” rate has been higher than usual. If the buyer wins the A-to-Z claim, it will impact my ODR/account. What is the likelihood of Amazon siding with me?